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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34402/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is visible in SOHO LASCO C3 after a data gap from 2024-11-04T02:18Z to 2024-11-04T05:43Z. The CME is associated with an M3.8 flare from AR 3883 (approximately S04E42) peaking at 2024-11-04T01:40Z. The eruption can be seen in all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery, with brightening best seen in SDO AIA 131, dimming and EUV wave best seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-07T02:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Nov 05 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

...The CME that was associated with the M3.8 flare at 04/0105UTC from
Region 3883 was reevaluated and was determined to have a possible
glancing blow early on 07 Nov...

Solar Wind

...Forecast...
Waning influences are expected 05-06 Nov from the aforementioned coronal
holes which will maintain elevated wind speeds. A glancing blow from the
CME associated with the M3.8 is expected 07 Nov. The forerunning shock
is expected 06 Nov with the bulk of the magnetic cloud arriving 07 Nov.
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced during this time...


Geospace


...Forecast...
Waning CH HSS influences are expected 05 Nov with unsettled conditions
likely. Glancing blow from the aforementioned CME is expected 07 Nov and
as early as 06 Nov. A G1 Watch has been issued for the most likely time
when the bulk of the magnetic cloud will arrive and disturb the field
which is Nov 7...

--------------

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Nov 05 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 05-Nov 07 2024

             Nov 05       Nov 06       Nov 07
00-03UT       3.33         2.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       3.67         2.33         4.33     
06-09UT       4.00         2.67         4.00     
09-12UT       4.33         3.00         3.33     
12-15UT       3.33         4.00         4.33     
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     
18-21UT       2.33         4.33         2.00     
21-00UT       2.33         4.00         3.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on
05-06 Nov. G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 07 Nov
due to possible CME effects....

Lead Time: 55.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-11-04T18:33Z

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